Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season/November-December
November Looks like the season is truly over; oh how I DETEST this season! It was going to be a grand one but thanks to atmospheric conditions it looks like we will NEVER EVER EVER get a decent hurricane going. For God's sake, WHAT IS GOING ON?! It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:51, October 31, 2013 (UTC) : For crying out loud, IT'S ALMOST NOVEMBER. (Happy Halloween woooo!!! XD) We haven't had a major this year at all. It is IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A FREAKING DECENT HURRICANE in the Atlantic right now (strong but stays out to sea.) Looks like we are in a hurricane ice age AFAIK. God! It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:54, October 31, 2013 (UTC) ::: The models were showing a couple storms within the next couple weeks, but they have been dropped. UGH! -bashes head in computer- FOR CELESTIA'S SAKE JUST DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT! And don't tell me to wait till 2014, this year's naming list was so cool.It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:57, October 31, 2013 (UTC) ::::Liz, it may be November, but that does not mean the Atlantic will be any less destructive. Even inactive seasons can produce freak Novembers. For instance, 1994 was in the same shoes 2013 was. Only five tropical storms, one (Chris) which became a hurricane, had formed by the end of October. But that November turned the season upside down. First came Florence, which nearly became a major over the open Atlantic, then Gordon, which was terror for Haiti. In addition, 1956 hurled out this November surprise, Greta. Several late season surprises (Michelle, Paloma, Kate, and Lenny) have come before, and who knows? Maybe 2013 will have a raviging Melissa or Nestor! AndrewTalk To Me 22:10, November 1, 2013 (UTC) I agree that there is a slight chance of us seeing a powerful storm in November, but statistically speaking nearly 19 out of every 20 storms that have ever formed in the Atlantic have formed before this time of year. Furthermore, the only storms in history to ever form in November and become major hurricanes were the 1912 Jamaica Hurricane, Kate of 1985, Lenny of 1999 and Paloma of 2008, the other November majors were crossovers from October. Oh and, recap from October: FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN DURING OCTOBER WAS NEAR NORMAL IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...BUT BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES. TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING OCTOBER...BUT NEITHER REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY... TWO NAMED STORMS FORM ON AVERAGE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN OCTOBER... WITH ONE BECOMING A HURRICANE. A MAJOR HURRICANE FORMS IN THE BASIN IN OCTOBER ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR. FOR THE SEASON OVERALL AS OF THE END OF OCTOBER...THE 12 NAMED STORMS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE VALUE OF 11...BUT THE 2 HURRICANES TO DATE IS WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE OF 5.8. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR HURRICANES THUS FAR IN 2013...WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE OF 2.6. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER WAS ABOUT 70 PERCENT BELOW THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE. The Atlantic would have to have a miracle in November to break even with ACE. None of the reliable models predict any serious development in the next week, and NHC doesn't expect anything in the next 5 days. There is a slight chance we could get another storm in mid to late November, but with the way this season has gone, it wouldn't surprise me if we get nothing at all through the remainder of the season. Ryan1000 23:36, November 1, 2013 (UTC) :Wow, the Atlantic has been extremely pathetic this season. This season's ACE is absolutely horrible! I don't think we will pull a 1994 November, but anything could happen. In fact, we might get nothing at all during the rest of the season. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:34, November 2, 2013 (UTC) AOI.South of Hispaniola AOI.South of Hispaniola Atlantic's not completely dead I guess. This little guy is at 10% south of Hispaniola. It will drift into the Western Caribbean over the next few days, still under generally unfavorable conditions. Ryan1000 12:50, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : Melissa anyone? Yeah, not gonna happen. This AOI will just die out without becoming tropical, and I don't think the Atlantic will get anymore storms during the rest of the season. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:29, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::I agree with Steven. This AOI is going to deal with a truckload of dry air and wind shear. I doubt it will develop. AndrewTalk To Me 21:46, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::AAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!! GET THE BUNNIES! THEY'LL MAKE MELISSA FORM! AAAAHHHH!!! WHAT is going on? And what on EARTH is that thing in Western Africa? A tropical wave? AAAAHHHHH!!! It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 21:48, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::::Liz, the "thing" near Western Africa is a low-pressure vortex; they tend to be common near Morocco. I doubt it will become tropical because only two tropical cyclones to my knowledge have developed near that area, Vince '05 and Delta '05. The bunnies can try, but poor Melissa may need to wait for six more years. AndrewTalk To Me 22:13, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::::::AAAAAHHHH! VORTEX! AAAHHH! IMMA GET SUCKED INSIDE IT!! AHHH! The bunnies, though, are SUPER RAINBOW SPARKLER BUNNIES that work for Princess Celestia, and they WILL MAKE MELISSA AND NESTOR THE DONKEY FORM! Stop Snapchatting, bunnies, AND GET TO WORK! It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:18, November 3, 2013 (UTC) :::::::-gives Melissa milk bottle- That might make Mel strengthen up so she can become big and strong. It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:20, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::The bunnies keep snapchatting. This AOI has not gotten any better organized, and Melissa may not get the fame she wants. AndrewTalk To Me 00:42, November 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::-seizes iPhones from bunnies- It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 01:04, November 4, 2013 (UTC) NHC expects this to drift a bit to the southwest over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea, but due to high wind shear in the area, NHC still only gives it 10% for 5 days. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't develop at all, given the rate it's going. Ryan1000 15:14, November 4, 2013 (UTC) : It's off the TWO now. I think this season is now over, and I don't think we will ever see Melissa this season. God, the Atlantic has been very terrible and pathetic this year! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 02:51, November 5, 2013 (UTC) 14L.MELISSA 98L.INVEST AOI: Over Atlantic True, it may be too late now to even produce a hurricane. But the Atlantic fails to stop! We got a new AOI that could develop between Bermuda and the Azores. It has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next five days. Based on all the fails we produced this season (except Humberto and Ingrid), I forecast peak winds of 30 or 35 knots. AndrewTalk To Me 22:04, November 15, 2013 (UTC) :: Yeah, I kinda expect Melissa from this. Kinda do. "DA NEST" might come too. I wonder if Mel would form on November 20? If she does, then we'll share birthdays, hooray! :D Anyway... I really don't know about strength though! Nester might come next week, perhaps? We might even have a Kurylenko coming right up after Nester, Nesta, Nestor, Nestaranka, however it's spelt lol. Bur remember the quote from Russell Brand: "Strength does not have to be belligerent and loud." But here in the UK, we're kinda waiting for Christmas to come. Lol. POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 22:44, November 15, 2013 (UTC) ::: I don't think we will see much from this. Yeah, it could become Melissa, but it'll only be a weakling, with my predicted peak of between 35-50 mph. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:12, November 16, 2013 (UTC) Well, it looks like this is up on the TWO. 10% for two days, but 50% for 5. It appears like it will run into some shear and cooler waters, so it might acquire subtropical characteristics before it becomes tropical, but either way this won't affect land, aside from, maybe producing a wave or two on Bermuda. Ryan1000 13:57, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::I really do not want another weakling. Remember when we were all frustrated with 2011's lack of intensity? The inactivity this year is even worse! All the other NHem basins have made up for their dreaded activity (WPac did so with the record-breaking October, NIO through the recent activity burst, EPAC through Raymond). Our ACE is currently at 29.9425! Even 1997, the quietest season of the Atlantic active era, had a better ACE than we do right now! Let's hope this AOI dies quickly. AndrewTalk To Me 14:20, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::I actually want Melissa it might be a re-shary or Sean, we might get Nestor too the next week,and I prefer another fail than nothing at all.Allanjeffs 16:03, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Well, due to shear and cooling waters, I think this will be Subtropical Storm Melissa if it forms, it may become a hurricane when it rockets out to sea in the long run, but it won't get past cat 1 if it does so. Ryan1000 18:34, November 16, 2013 (UTC) :::Currently, it's still at a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours and 50% for the next 5 days: :::TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK :::NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL :::100 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013 :::FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... :::1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP :::OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE :::SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME :::CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL :::CHARACTERISTICS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD :::TO NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF :::BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 :::HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A :::SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. :::Maybe we could see Melissa from this, and in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it pulls a Shary and becomes a hurricane while rocketing out to sea. I still hope we don't get another epic fail though. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 20:36, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::: up to 20% should be an invest soon.Here comes Melissa might be the gran finale of 2013 or might be Nestor depends if another nontropical low takes place.Allanjeffs 23:49, November 16, 2013 (UTC) :::::When will Melissa form? I hope November 20! I want her to be my birthday buddy! Anyway, there is something swirling in Trinidad, what is that? Wind shear in the "MelArea" and the Southern Caribbean is relatively low. So wut people? WHOOPEE FOR YOU MELISSA, LET'S HAVE A PARTY. “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 01:28, November 17, 2013 (UTC) 98L.INVEST For those who are sick of the constant fail storms of the 2013 AHS (besides Humberto and Ingrid, of course), I am sorry to tell you that you are likely going to have to deal with another "waste" of a name. Per Wunderground, this AOI has been invested and given the number 98L. As for the system itself, it is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers, and gale-force winds have been reported in the system (i.e. if upgraded, it will go straight to Tropical or Subtropical Storm Melissa). As the invest continues moving northward, it now has a 30% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 60% chance of doing so in the next five days. I can hardly believe such a beautiful name (Melissa) is about to go to a horrendous epic fail on the level of Jerry and Lorenzo! As I said in an earlier AOI along the lines of Otto's reaction to Dorian: "Melissa does not deserve to be Marilyn or Michelle's predesscor at all". AndrewTalk To Me 13:20, November 17, 2013 (UTC) : Eh, there is a chance this could become a hurricane if conditions lighten up and if shear loses a grip of this thing as it heads north then northeast out to sea. Although it's likely it won't be a hurricane because, well, this is 2013... Ryan1000 15:01, November 17, 2013 (UTC) : Even though this looks like another fail, I am in an extremely good mood today. It's my mother's birthday and I'm going to take her out to eat. *SHHHHH* don't tell her ;). Anyways about the invest, it doesn't impress me. Also, after Typhoon Haiyan's destruction through the Phillipines, I really don't want anymore hurricane strength storms. OK I'm leaving now, I'm hungry. leeboy100 (talk) 15:45, November 17, 2013 (UTC) : Melissa is coming an fast the invest is getting its act together and it will probably be a re-Noel or Olga of 2001.The irony that this is the same list.Anyways Melissa of 2007 was an epic fail so I don`t see why you are sad Andrew.Allanjeffs 16:03, November 17, 2013 (UTC) ::Allan, I think Melissa is a very lovely name, and I do not think it deserves to be the name of any epic fail. Her 2007 incarnation was bad enough, and I do not want that to happen again this year. Anyway, with Invest 98L, it has gained some thunderstorm activity and organization has improved in the circulation center. The NHC now gives it a 40% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and 70% of doing so in the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 17:59, November 17, 2013 (UTC) ::Hey kids! It's time to use the "M" name...Melissa! As Andrew said above, its up to 40% (48 hours) and 70% (5 days). Looks like we could have another epic failure. Yeah, it might have an outside chance of hurricane status, but I doubt that, since it is 2013. Can't wait to see how much it epically fails. These failures are so hilarious xD. Anyway, here's what it says on the TWO: ::TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ::NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ::100 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 ::FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... ::1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ::OCEAN ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ::CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND ::THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ::ORGANIZED NEAR THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL ::CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR ::TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES ::SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM ::CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE ::DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF ::BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ::Could we see another epic fail? —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:25, November 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::(listens to "Donatella": Lady Gaga whilst getting ready for I'm a Celeb and typing this) Well, models are actually expecting Melissa to peak as a Category 2, beating Humberto to pulp. Well, I don't think she'll fail after all. Wind shear in the "MelArea" is decreasing according to Storm2k, lol. So, I don't think so, Steve. She'll be as beautiful as Aphrodite. “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 21:00, November 17, 2013 (UTC) :::::Liz, even if the wind shear decreases, Invest 98L is heading into a region of cooler SST's, so I am forecasting at most a 65 knot weak hurricane. Also, for the record, it is very rare for an Atlantic tropical cyclone to become a hurricane in November. As far as I can recall, only seven tropical cyclones have ever done it in reliable records - Greta '56, the seventeenth storm of 1969, Karl '80, Florence '94, Nicole '98, and Noel/Olga '01, and only Florence and Greta made it beyond Category 1 intensity. So I would not trust whichever model forecasts a Category 2. Also, to give an idea of how bad our intensity power outage is in this Atlantic season, our strongest storm, Humberto, reached a minimum pressure of 980 mbar. Even 2011 produced better intensity than 2013. To illustrate, if Humberto were a storm in 2011, his pressure would rank him as the season's sixth strongest storm, after Ophelia (940 mbar), Katia (120 kts/942 mbar), Irene (105 kts/942 mbar), Rina (966 mbar), and Philippe (976 mbar). In addition, Humberto would just barely exceed Sean (982 mbar) and Maria (983 mbar)'s pressures. AndrewTalk To Me 22:32, November 17, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Wanna know why? Humberto came in like a wrecking ball. LOL jk, but yeah, shouldn't he be lower mbar? Sean was only a tropical-subtropical storm LOL! #toobusytwerking “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 22:38, November 17, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::It's 8 Andrew, you forgot Paloma of 2008, which also peaked above cat 1 (145 mph winds). However, I agree that this probably won't do much. It might become a minimal hurricane, but that's about it. Ryan1000 23:24, November 17, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::Can believe both of you forgot wrong way Lenny of 1999 the strongest storm in November until it was discover that the 1934 or 32 hurricane that affect Cuba was a cat 5.Anyways it looks like Melissa is coming up to 50% whether we want it or not.Allanjeffs 23:39, November 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Whoops. Do not forgot Martha '69, Jeanne '80, Kate '85, Gordon '94, and Michelle as well, in that case. Liz, the Atlantic can produce huge pressure/wind diffusions. For example, Tropical Storm Delta in 2005 never made it to hurricane intensity, but had a minimum pressure of 980 mbar - which was Humberto's minimum pressure. Also, Hurricane Ethel in 1960 became a Category 5 hurricane, but it's pressure was only 972 mbar - for comparison, Hurricane Isaac last year had a minimum pressure of 966 mbar despite never making it past Category 1 intensity. I do not know what Invest 98L's minimum pressure will be, but it will not be very low. AndrewTalk To Me 23:45, November 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::::Yeah, there are quite a few we missed, if you go before 1950 there are at least 5-10 others. However, I still doubt this will become very strong if it forms. But since this 2013, we're probably gonna see another epic fail even if we're tired of them... Ryan1000 23:56, November 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::::Up to 90% Melissa is about to form, pressure of this invest is very low 995 and winds are 40knots.Allanjeffs 12:06, November 18, 2013 (UTC) This is really looking like a subtropical cyclone; I would actually be surprised if it goes straight to TS Melissa. It'll probably be classified as Subtropical Storm Melissa before it's fully tropical, if it ever does. Ryan1000 13:22, November 18, 2013 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Melissa CALLED IT!! I knew it would start out not fully tropical. Might become tropical later though. Ryan1000 15:47, November 18, 2013 (UTC) :: PARTYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PARTY!!!!!! I mean, I DID NOT EXPECT THIS AT ALL!! WE HAVE A SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WOOOO!! I'm actually party rocking hard right now! We can't stop, we won't stop... Expected to be a CAT 1 woooo!! PARTY!!!! “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 21:04, November 18, 2013 (UTC) :: Melissa might become the strongest of the season is pressure is 987 and its winds are in the 60mph.N13 is here.Allanjeffs 21:18, November 18, 2013 (UTC) :::I can't believe that in a season with only two hurricanes, neither of them better than Category 1 intensity, we're going to have our latest end to an Atlantic season since Olga in December 2007. Current forecast takes Melissa to 60 kts, right under hurricane strength. Granted, if this thing reaches hurricane strength while subtropical, it technically won't be classified as the season's third hurricane because such a classification requires a storm to be fully tropical, but still; go, Melissa, go! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:32, November 18, 2013 (UTC) :::It will be tropical its almost tropical now,and I believe there was subtropical hurricane before like in the 60s.Don`t remember.Allanjeffs 21:59, November 18, 2013 (UTC) ::::Subtropical Storm One in 1979 reached hurricane strength. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:01, November 18, 2013 (UTC) ::::Yay, we got Melissa! I hope this will become a subtropical hurricane, since that is a pretty rare occurrence and I've never tracked one of those before. I think it will become tropical later on though, and probably peak at around 80-85 mph (even though the NHC forecast only takes it up to 70 mph). —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 23:40, November 18, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Maybe Melissa lost her chance of becoming a hurricane by now (although it could turn into a tropical storm). Ryan1000 18:14, November 19, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Melissa has lost her chance.Allanjeffs 01:24, November 20, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Not just that, but it's weakened to 45 kts/988 mbar. Damn you Melissa -_- --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:49, November 20, 2013 (UTC) :::::::She should be weaker imo.Allanjeffs 04:23, November 20, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Finally, Melissa is here! :) Simlover123' ' 20:17, November 20, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Melissa Ryan called it again.--Isaac829 20:57, November 20, 2013 (UTC) ITS NY BIRTHDAY!! 15 TODAY!!! wooooo! And did she surpass Humberto's intensity?!? “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 21:16, November 20, 2013 (UTC) :No.--Isaac829 21:30, November 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Eh, by now it doesn't matter anyways, it should die out in a day or two. Ryan1000 22:03, November 20, 2013 (UTC) ::::@Liz, Melissa didn't surpass Humberto's intensity. It did reach 65 mph and a 982 mbar pressure, which is only 2 mbar weaker than Humberto. At least Melissa became tropical, but I hate the fact it didn't become a hurricane. So far, we are at 14-13-2-0, which means only 2 out of 14 '''storms became hurricanes. God, the activity in this season was absolutely weak, even though we had a near-average number of named storms in this season. Hopefully 2014 will have stronger storms, and the ACE this year '''sucks! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:06, November 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::I believe the next year will be the same as this year because the negative pattern don´t want to move away.Anyways she became tropical just before dying nothing big at all.Anyways she might up the ACE to 30 before dying.Allanjeffs 02:33, November 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::We should count her time as subtropical as only wiki doesn`t do it the NHC and every other place do it.Allanjeffs 03:01, November 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::::NHC doesn't count ACE while storms were subtropical. Either way though, Melissa has gotten a bit stronger as of late. The update statment says 65 mph winds, decent for this far north. It might cause some winds in the Azores soon, but nothing too severe. Ryan1000 17:02, November 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::::They actually do.Yo can check the Descending dropsonde in facebook for more information.Anyways Melissa has now a pressure of 980 could be the strongest of the season at this rate.Allanjeffs 21:54, November 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::COME ON MEL!!! LET'S SMASH HUMBERTO TO SMITHERINES!! WOOOOO!!! lol being random XD Anyways, HAS SHE ALREADY BEATEN HUMBERTO?!!? HUH HUU HUH?!?! :D :D :D?!?! “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 22:39, November 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::They are tied now.Allanjeffs 00:43, November 22, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::Actually, the tie is broken by the windspeeds; Humberto peaked a good 20 kts above Melissa, so it retains the season throne. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:53, November 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Or until the TCR comes out for both storms.--Isaac829 02:14, November 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Dylan even though I am with you when the storms have the same pressure instead we should choose the ones that have highest winds sadly wikipedia takes by pressure so technically both storms are tied.Allanjeffs 03:33, November 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Sorry it looks that now the policy have change now even though they have same pressure they take the winds into account.Cool I found the other policy to be not correct.Anyways they would be tie if it was a Gordon/Helene situation in which they had the same pressure and winds.Btw Melissa is goneAllanjeffs 03:37, November 22, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa We'd need to have something in December for this not to be the end of the season, so... hats off to the most pathetic hurricane season I've ever witnessed. At least it ended in a relatively cool fashion with Melissa. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:40, November 22, 2013 (UTC) MMM we might still get Nestor before all is done.Remember 2003 with Odette and Peter. or 2007 with Olga.This season was the pathetic compare to recent years but better than others in the past.Anyways we might enter the era where storms get weaker.Anyways Oswald and Rusty are out of the lists.Allanjeffs 03:43, November 22, 2013 (UTC) :Ditto Megi's PAGASA name from 2010, Juan. Guess they decided to retire it retroactively. Its replacement for next year is José. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:47, November 22, 2013 (UTC) :::I guess this is hats off to the 2013 season. This year almost bored me to death, Ingrid and Manuel might make this year memorable to an extent, although it's not like Mexico hasn't seen bad hurricanes before anyways. I can't believe this season didn't at least have a category 2 storm. That's the first such occurence in the sattelite era, although 1907 and 1914 had no hurricanes at all. I guess they changed the policy Allan? They didn't count subtropical storms in ACE totals back in 2007/2008 with storms like Andrea, I hadn't heard they started doing it now. Ryan1000 05:56, November 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::With Melissa's dissipation, looks like this is the end of the season, unless we get a December surprise (which is probably not gonna happen). Hats off to the most crappiest, boring, and pathetic Atlantic season I've ever seen and witnessed since I began to track hurricanes in 2010. Unless we get a surprise, this season's grand total is 14-13-2-0, with only 2 out of 14 storms becoming hurricanes, and a total ACE of 33 (how low!). Can't wait for the start of the 2014 Atlantic season, which, despite predictions of El Nino, I hope for it to have stronger storms than 2013. Hopefully we will see a major next year too (that hopefully stays out to sea). —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:13, November 23, 2013 (UTC) :::::Ryan, what about 1968? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:27, November 23, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Ah, there were a few other seasons with that lack as well, 1968 is one. Let me rephrase that, it's the first non-El Nino year to have this (I said that below in the farewell section). 1994, 1986, 1972, and 1968 are the only other years since 1950 with no majors, but they were all El Nino years. Ryan1000 21:06, November 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Well, for the record, Melissa was not exactly an epic fail. For the record, its ACE is 3.3775. By the standards of any other season, that number would be extremely pathetic, but admist the TS spam of the 2013 AHS, Melissa generated the third highest ACE of the season (after Humberto and Ingrid), as well as the storm with the highest ACE that never exceeded TS intensity. I am not saying Melissa was a win, but it was not the worst fail possible either. AndrewTalk To Me 12:57, November 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Ryan in response for your question about ACE in terms of sts,this is what the NHC put in facebook " In terms of ACE, the collective strength and duration of the season’s subtropical storms, tropical storms, and hurricanes, 2013 will likely end up as the sixth-quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1950. " So there is your answer Ryan,hope I help :DAllanjeffs 21:18, November 25, 2013 (UTC) Ah, so they did change the policy. ACE used to be only for tropical storms, I guess they decided to include subtropical in that too. That's only fair, if they can get named their ACE should be included as well. I don't know if 2013 signaled the start of an inactive Atlantic period, knowing we'll be in El Nino next year, but hopefully it does, the Atlantic has gone bonkers for every other year in the past 18 years that wasn't El Nino. We could use a quieter season, but I was hoping we'd get at least a strong fish major hurricane. Btw, I wonder where Eric went? Has he retired from the wiki or has he and everyone else been too bored at this season's activity? I was hoping he'd update more info on his Hurricane Hall of Fame. I liked Dylan's idea of bringing it up again during Hurricane Irene in 2011, and I'm hoping we can do that again sometime. Ryan1000 22:55, November 25, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, where is Eric? He hasn't posted since last year. Hopefully he will come back for the 2014 season, and I hope he isn't retired or anything. The Hurricane Hall of Fame needs to be updated too. I'm also glad subtropical storms are now finally included in the ACE. And yeah, 2013 might be the start of an inactive period for the Alantic, and 2014 might be even more boring than this year due to an El Nino. Here comes some more boring Atlantic seasons... —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:24, November 26, 2013 (UTC) December Well, welcome to December in the Atlantic! We may still get one more named storm, but it likely will not get very strong. Let's hope we get a re-Lili (1984) or Epsilon (2005)! AndrewTalk To Me 15:24, December 1, 2013 (UTC) :Here is our NHC summary for the Atlantic: ONE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN...TROPICAL STORM MELISSA. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...A NAMED STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN NOVEMBER IN ABOUT 3 OUT OF EVERY 4 YEARS. FOR THE 2013 SEASON OVERALL...13 NAMED STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN...WITH ONLY TWO OF THE STORMS REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THERE WAS ALSO ONE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT FORMED THAT DID NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY... THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF ACTIVITY IN THE BASIN IS 12 NAMED STORMS...6 HURRICANES...AND 3 MAJOR HURRICANES. FOR 2013...THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS WAS NEAR AVERAGE...BUT THE NUMBERS OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES WERE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR HURRICANES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1994...AND THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES THIS YEAR WAS THE LOWEST SINCE 1982. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...OR ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES... TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FOR THE SEASON WAS ABOUT 67 PERCENT BELOW THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE. THE ACE VALUE FOR 2013 WAS THE LOWEST SINCE 1994. A rather wimpy season, wasn't it? AndrewTalk To Me 21:51, December 1, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, this was a really sucky season. I don't think we are gonna get one more named storm, and certainly not a re-Lili (1984) and a Epsilon (2005). This season's done. Hats off to the crappiest Atlantic season I've ever tracked. 2014 should be better, I promise. Even though we might see an El Nino next year, there should (hopefully) be stronger storms. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 22:57, December 1, 2013 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AOI.Eastern Atlantic The last hurrah for the Atlantic is this. Could become subtropical as it heads northeast. Ryan1000 18:02, November 27, 2013 (UTC) :Right now, this AOI is currently a weak area of thunderstorms. It could become a low-pressure system by Friday and become subtropical. It also has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the next two days and a 20% chance in the next five. Assuming this system becomes subtropical before December 1, 2013's November will be the first in eight years to two or more storms. I predict a peak intensity of 60 knots (70 mph), and this AOI will be the 'N' storm to break Noel's Category 1 curse (all three of the Atlantic Noel's were Category 1s). AndrewTalk To Me 21:34, November 27, 2013 (UTC) ::It's currently just a weak area of showers and t-storms, and if it does develop, it should peak as a strong subtropical storm and possibly be a Melissa 2.0 if it becomes tropical later on. Looks like the Atlantic is giving out one last hurrah. I think it will become Nestor by Friday, and make this November the first one in 8 years to have 2 November storms! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 22:36, November 27, 2013 (UTC) ::I knew Nestor would have come sooner or later,Happy to see that the last replacement name is going to be used :D.Allanjeffs 00:26, November 28, 2013 (UTC) :::Looks like there's a chance I could win the betting pool on when the season would end, if due to Nestor instead of Rebekah like I had hoped (still waiting on Rebekah to make its debut, 17 years after it was chosen as Roxanne's replacement). I'm really hoping for a Category 1 (or maybe even a hardcore expert-level Category 2) hurricane out of this. Granted, that will probably not happen due to the Great Atlantic Curse of 2013, but hey, a man can dream, can't he? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:45, November 27, 2013 (UTC) :::Models don`t make it strong I believe a peak between 65 and 70mph will be right on the spot.Allanjeffs 00:28, November 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::I believe 60 knots (70 mph)/980 mbar (hPa) would be a good peak estimate for the AOI. As for the system itself, its thunderstorm activity has improved and it now has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next two days and a 30% chance in the next five. AndrewTalk To Me 12:37, November 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::::This could easily be the first post-season storm we've seen in 6 years, though I don't expect this to be a hurricane, I do hope it becomes TS Nestor. It shouldn't affect land while it's a tropical cyclone, aside from, maybe the Azores. Ryan1000 15:11, November 28, 2013 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Now it's an invest. Ryan1000 20:02, November 28, 2013 (UTC) Here comes the 14th storm of the season and one of the names I have been waiting for.Allanjeffs 21:37, November 28, 2013 (UTC) :: NESTER PARTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :DDDD!!!!!! Sad thing though, I'm writing my exams next week :p. What do ya guys think of "Nester?" “I don't think you can define love.”- Harry Styles 22:59, November 28, 2013 (UTC) ::: It's "Nestor" not "Nester". Here comes the 14th storm of the season, Nestor! Can't wait for the name to make its first show since it replaced Noel. I think it will become subtropical either tomorrow or Saturday, and peak at around 60-65 mph. BTW, happy Thanksgiving to all Americans!!! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 23:09, November 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::: lol ok tyvm for telling me. AND TOMORROW IS BLACK FRIDAY, HAPPY TURKEY DAY!!! :D om nom nom XD we still have to go to school here XD and lol. hurry up nest'O'''r. lol XD :::::: Well, we have Thanksgiving break, so we don't have school the whole week! Lucky me!! :D —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 23:37, November 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::: That's good to hear XD We had a school concert by the way, AWESOME school concert, I was an alto in the choir!! :D “i liek turtlez 23:42, November 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::::: Bad news guys, seems like the great curse of 2013 could strike again. NHC says conditions will only be favorable for 1 or 2 more days until they turn too hostile for development. 'Ryan1000' 01:56, November 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Invest 90L now has a '''20%' chance of becoming tropical in the next five days. Maybe Nestor may need to wait a little. AndrewTalk To Me 03:02, November 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Looks like Nestor is not coming from this and if it comes it will be an epic fail.:(Allanjeffs 05:36, November 29, 2013 (UTC) (←)Any development from this invest is going to be very slow now. Although it has become a low pressure system, it is entering unfavorable conditions, and the invest has just a 10% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 13:36, November 29, 2013 (UTC) : Looks like the great Atlantic curse of 2013 strikes again! It's still at 10% (48 hours and 5 days). Gosh, I really wanted to see Nestor this year! Now, unless we get a December surprise, we have to wait until 2019, 6 whole loooong years bro. Goddammit, I really wanted to see new names do something. =( —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:22, November 29, 2013 (UTC) ::And the invest has gone off the TWO. It looks like Melissa is the end, unless we get a re-Olga (2007). AndrewTalk To Me 18:52, November 30, 2013 (UTC) Maybe not guys, 90L up there again, 20% on NHC. Post-season Nestor anyone? Ryan1000 22:44, December 4, 2013 (UTC) :::And with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), this could easily become our season's third hurricane is it becomes tropical. AndrewTalk To Me 01:41, December 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::Maybe we could ''see a post-season surprise with Nestor, but this invest only has a small window of opportunity for development before it runs into strong upper-level winds and cold water in a couple days. While it's producing winds of 60 mph, I'll be very surprised if it becomes a hurricane, especially so late in the year. I think that the Great Atlantic Curse of 2013 will strike again, and kill this invest before it could even become tropical! Who knows what could happen to this thing? Since it is producing winds of 60 mph, it might have an outside shot of hurricane status, but I doubt that will happen since it ''is 2013... —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 03:44, December 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::You guys know which storm had 50 kt winds when it was first classified? Karen. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:21, December 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::::It's down to near 0% and should be off the TWO soon. Oh well, I guess the season is done for good. Farewell, 2013 AHS. I can't wait to see what the 2014 Atlantic season will have in store, hopefully it will be a better season than this year! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 18:13, December 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Well, Invest 90L is off the TWO once more, likely for good. This should be the end of the 2013 AHS. AndrewTalk To Me 00:06, December 9, 2013 (UTC)